JK MRISHO KIKWETE

Tanzania’s 25 October presidential and parliamentary elections will be hotly contested and may turn out to be the closest elections in the country’s history.
As the campaigns get underway, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party still has a clear edge, but that could easily erode over the next five weeks. The CCM has made several political missteps and the opposition parties are more united than in the past.
The defection of former CCM prime minister and political heavyweight Edward Lowassa to the opposition has generated fissures inside the ruling party and given an added boost to a more unified opposition. While the CCM clearly has some strong electoral advantages, there are growing indications that its long-term grip on power is continuing to dissipate.
A tight election or the perception of a rigged outcome could increase the chance of post-election violence in what has been one of Africa’s leading democracies and most peaceful countries.
A defector vs an accidental candidate
CCM has monopolised political power since the country’s return to multiparty democracy in 1992. It has won every single presidential election and has held significant parliamentary majorities in the mainland legislature. CCM (and its precursor TANU) flourished under the charismatic leadership of Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere, and with his stewardship and organisational skills, the party established a broad network of branches across the nation – many of which continue to exist.
However, after 23 years in power, CCM’s appeal is starting to fade, and the party may be in for a bruising battle to retain national power. The CCM is in trouble for a variety of reasons – some of its own making.
To begin with, President Jakaya Kikwete and the ruling party barons mismanaged CCM’s 2015 presidential candidate selection process. Kikwete reportedly favoured Foreign Minister Bernard Membe to succeed him. However, to secure Membe’s nomination, Kikwete had to derail the nomination of former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa. Lowassa, an ambitious and determined CCM stalwart, had amassed significant support in the Central Committee and the National Executive Committee – the two bodies responsible for selecting the presidential candidate.
To keep Lowassa off the ticket, Kikwete’s allies reportedly manipulated the work of CCM’s Ethics and Security Committee, which is responsible for reviewing, vetting and forwarding all candidates to the National Executive Committee.
Instead of passing on the names of all 38 potential candidates, the Ethics Committee is understood to have held a highly irregular session and agreed to forward only five names, deleting Lowassa and putting together a shortlist that would favour Membe.
However, when his name was left off the final list, Lowassa turned his full attention to preventing Membe from securing the nomination. Members of the National Executive were allowed to cast three votes for their top selections, and those who had previously favoured Lowassa voted against the Foreign Minister.